Keywords

The Third Millennium System, Multi-Polarity, Balances of Threat, Rising Powers, Soft Balance

Introduction

The third millennium witnessed a wide-ranging transformation and change in the shape of the world order and the patterns of international relations. The precursors of this change began at the end of the last century, after the collapse of the Soviet Union when the United States became the exclusive dominant power of the world order, as the century was describes then as the American century. However, such exclusive dominance did not last long amidst the fast-tracking presence of other international powers that stand in the face of such hegemony. This change has led the world to experience a new world order towards multi-polarity. It is also witnessing a drastic shift in the map of alliances and the balance of powers, as well as experiencing a growing threat to international peace and security.

New ideologies are now challenging the Western democracy, and believe that it failed to achieve equality and stability in the world. Inspired by these ideologies, the rising powers sought to possess power so as to increase the ability to threaten. Hence, the balance between order and chaos fluctuated in favor of chaos in the third millennium system, and gave way to a chaotic system with a large number of centers of power, which led to a relative shift in the global balance of power, with which the West is no longer the center of "influence" for political and economic activities and international affairs.

Problem/Question of the Study

The third millennium system witnessed a wide shift and transformation in the concepts and theories relating to international conflict, strategic thought and military doctrines, since the world is going through a new world order that is moving towards multi-polarity dogma. It is also experiencing witnessing the of new ideologies that challenge Western democracy, according to which the equation and patterns of international relations have changed.

The problem of the study lies in the repercussion or implications of the emergence of rising international powers that seek to move the contemporary world order from unipolar to multi-polar, through their quest to possess power, increase the ability to threaten the balance of power and the state of international peace and security on the one hand, and on changing the equation and pattern of international relations in the third millennium international system on the other hand.

Significance of the Study

The importance of the study is represented in tracing the emergence of new rising powers in the third millennium system that seek to possess power so as to increase the ability to threaten, and change the form and pattern of international relations in the twenty-first century, as they reject the United States’ hegemony on the international arena, and its impact on the map of alliances during the contemporary world order, and the supporting the state of multi-polarity in the world instead of unipolar.

Its importance also lies in detecting and studying the repercussions of the emergence of new powers in the third millennium, and their impact on the balance of power in the world order as well as their effect on international peace and security during the transformation towards a multi-polar system.

Objectives of the Study

The study seeks to achieve the following:

1- Identifying the new ideological transformations in the structure of the third millennium international system, and their role in the multiplicity of its powers.

2- Detecting the emerging powers in the system of the third millennium, and their role in the trend of the contemporary international system towards multi-polarity.

3- Recognizing the impact of the precursors of the transformation in the structure of the third millennium system on the state of international peace and security.

Questions of the Study

The study aims to answer the following questions:

1- What are the new ideological transformations in the structure of the international system of the third millennium? What is their role in the multiplicity of powers?

2- What are the rising forces in the third millennium system? And what is its role in the trend of the contemporary international system towards multi-polarity?

3- What is the impact of the precursors of the transformation in the structure of the third millennium system on the state of international peace and security?

Previous Studies/Literature

There are several studies that have tackled the topic of the study and other various aspects, and they are published in specialized and arbitrated books and journals. This study will review a number of them including:

(Al-Qadhi, 2018) conducted a study titled “A Theoretical Approach to the Future of Ideological Transformations in the Structure of the World Order”.

The study focused on tracing the changes that characterized the contemporary world order, and to anticipate the transformations that may occur as a result of ideological and cultural transformations, and not caused by changes in the balance of powers, as the researcher aims to benefit from the theories of international relations in predicting the future of these transformations in the structure of the world order, applying the historical approach and the variable analysis methodology.

The researcher concluded that: In light of the emergence of the systematic doctrine put forward by the Russian President Putin as an ideology that opposes liberalism, the world order has to choose one of the following options:

Either the world will move towards a post-Western globalization system, especially after the exit of Britain from the European Union which is considered the most important indicator, or that the world order will become a world without polarity. This means a world with chaos, divisions and tense, a world that does not follow a certain model and implies that the world is moving towards a severe ideological polarity, which resembles the ideology of the Post-Cold War, when the Western powers have strongly resisted the systematic doctrine.

(Dagi, 2018): A study titled: Balance of Power or Balance of Threat: Revisiting Ottoman Alliance Politics before the Great War".

The study aimed to discuss the theory of the coalition to achieve balance of threat, by trying to understand the motives and aims of the Ottoman rulers from their alliance to participate in the Great War at the side of Germany, and to shed light on the "rational elements" of their strategy that balances the main source of the threat.

The researcher concluded that the Ottoman alliance with Germany in the Great War was not driven by sentimental or naive motivations, but, was a rational choice among their options and their assessment of the level of external threats with the European powers (the powers of conciliation), especially Russia, after Britain and France refused to achieve a balance between the Russians and the Ottomans; Therefore, the balance of threat forced the Ottomans to enter into an alliance with Germany, and Russia found a way to balance the source of the greatest threat through making alliance with the Central Powers.

(Xuetong, 2018) conducted a study with the title: “Chinese Values vs. Liberalism: What Ideology Will Shape the International Normative Order”?

The study traced the Chinese values that will guide China's policies in shaping the future international system after the decline of the American liberal hegemony and its efforts to combine traditional Chinese values with liberal values and put an end to the unipolar system in the third millennium.

The researcher concluded that none of the ideologies has ever been as globally effective as liberalism-although is too early to predict its future, however, the Chinese rise will enhance the international influence of Chinese traditional values. The researcher believes that integrating a set of modern values (human authority) such as equality, justice and courtesy can lead to a more peaceful world order.

This study is unique of its kind since it highlights a vital issues, as it tried to trace the emergence of the rising powers in the third millennium system, while rejecting the American hegemony on the international scene and focused on identifying the repercussions of the beginning of the world’s transformation towards multi-polarity, as well as discussing its impact on the state of balance, and the future of international peace and security.

Hypothesis of the Study

In accordance with the problem of the study and the aforementioned objectives, the study adopts a main hypothesis that:

There is a correlative relationship between the emergence of the rising powers in the third millennium system and the beginning of its transformation towards multi-polarity instead of unipolarity.

Methodology of the Study

In consistence with the problem of the study, the hypothesis and the aforementioned questions, the following approaches were applied:

1- The analytical descriptive approach which is based on collecting information about a specific problem in order to address it by describing and analyzing its aspects and dimensions. This methodology focuses on the beginning of the transformation of the world order from unipolarity to multi-polarity after the rise of several international powers. The researcher tried to analyze this shift impact on the state of balance and subsequently on the state of international peace and security.

2- The system analysis approach: It is one of the most important new approaches developed in the scope of political studies that began in the mid-fifties of the last century, which begins with the (inputs) and ends with the (outputs), whereas the (feedback) process links the inputs and outputs.

In view of that, this approach was applied to discuss the impact of the rise of new powers in the third millennium system on its balance, and on the state of international peace and security in light of the escalating threat between them.

Structure of the Study

The study themes were divided into the following topics in order to find answers for the questions of the study:

The First Topic: The new ideological transformations of the structure of the third millennium international system, and their role in the emergence of the multiplicity of powers.

The Second Topic: The rising powers and their impact on the trend of the contemporary world order towards multi-polarity.

The Third Topic: The impact of the precursors of the transformation of the structure of the third millennium system on the state of international peace and security.

The first topic: The New Ideological Transformations of the Structure of the Third Millennium International System, and Their Role in the Emergence of the Multiplicity of Powers

During the post-cold war, the international world order has witnessed a change in the unipolarity system that had created a state of chaos in the world. Such state was an unfamiliar change which had not been adopted before. Some realists thought that such change was a sudden event which would not last long. The hegemony of one power leads to the annihilation of the international order, but according to Hanz Morgenthau, when the balance of powers-either multi-polarity or bipolarity system is achieved-the collapse of the world order can be avoided and stability maintain can be maintained. The United States failed to abide by self-control and moderation, hence the end of the historically inevitable unipolarity stage (Al- Jerbawi & Habash, 2019).

Precursors of the Emergence of a New Ideology in the Structure of the Third International Millennium

In view of the international regimes through history, it is found that there has been a strong relation between the distribution of materialistic potentials and the intellectual and cultural structure. Those who had such potentials, used to have the big share in leading the international arena as they had done their utmost to globalize their cultures and visions. In spite of the variety in the importance of the cultural dimension in the international relations’ schools, these schools did not neglect its importance (Culture and Soft Powers: Wars of Thoughts in the External Policy, 2019, https://www.politics-dz.com/).

In an attempt to understand at the post-cold war stage, constructivists think that the prevailing doctrine at that era which was the globalization ideology, was not a result of the power that was disrupted in favor of the United States as realists think, but due to the conflict of ideas and beliefs in the Soviet Union among socialist ideologies-between the formal ideology and liberal thoughts were spread then-which led to the collapse of the Soviet Union because of the rebellion in some parties that became convinced of the liberal ideology (Al Qadhi, 2018).

The transformations in the world order during the third millennium can be perceived through understanding the most well-known international relations schools: realists who identify the world order according to mere materialistic considerations relating to the number of great powers in the world and the nature of power ties among them-the materialistic distribution of power-think that the third millennium system is going through a transitional phase based on the decline in the components of the American power-military and economy-as a result of the wrongful involvement in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which opened the way to adapt the prevailing power relations between the great powers.

Since such adaptation has not been constant, realists think that the structure of the world order is not stable yet. On the contrary, the constructivists–who identify the world order through the prevailing international culture-believe that this transitional phase through which the world powers are passing through in the third millennium-is due to the determination to impose the West globalization system, using the Hard Power as it was the case during the reign of the American President George Bush Jr. or by using the Smart Power during the reign of the American President Barak Obama. This led to boosting chaos in the international relations as well as supporting the trend to strengthen stability at the expense of democracy (Joe Seen, 2017:1).

This was probably the cause of the new ideologies that emerged to defy the western democracy, known as Orderism which was adopted by the Russian President Vladimir Putin in his speech at the annual Valdai Forum in Sochi city in 2015. Some thinkers, researchers and academics believe that it was the declaration of a new phase in the Federal Russia rule and the beginning of a new phase in the international policy. Putin thought that the world was experiencing a great upheaval in the western democracy policies that were inconsistent with diversity of cultures, doctrines and ideologies which prevailed in the countries that adopted the western liberal democracy principles, and embraced the thoughts of the American nation that called for establishing a new globalization-based world order. Moreover, he thinks that that the West failed to achieve equality despite the slogans of human rights, freedoms, denouncing discrimination and supporting democracy.

Such failure created a state of instability and chaos in some states that opted to precise democracy without being fully prepared to it. Putin’s strategy calls for a conceptual revolution on liberalism and reconsideration of democracy as theory and practice (Shang, 2016, Russian Orderism…are we on the threshold of a new historical phasehttps://www.sudaress.com/).

Federal Russia realized that reviving the socialist ideology won’t attract states as well as people-since the globalization ideology have eliminated any opportunity for socialist ideology to grow-so it tried to develop a new intellectual doctrine by which it can challenge the western communities. The Orderism basic political hypothesis gave more focus on stability rather than democracy which failed in keeping its promises and it also emphasized on the conservative values relating to religion, whereas they opposed secular values that are supported by western democracy (Al Qadhi, 2018). Hence, by the beginning of the second decade of the twenty first century, liberalism began to fade away as a result of the increasing challenges of other ideologies that threaten its dominance. The decline of liberalism as a main international political value created new opportunities for other ideologies to compete on power and influence (Xuetong, 2018).

Are we Facing a New Phase of Globalization Ideology Breakdown?

The international relations in the third millennium system have witnessed several disorders including the structural transformations in the international system and the developments taking place in the European Union-starting with Britain’s exit from the EU, and the rise of populism in Western countries, all of these portend a disintegration of Western alliances and institutional systems in general, which indicates a faltering of the globalization system of the capitalist market economy and the policies of liberal democracy.

John Ralston Saul, in his book titled: “Collapse of globalization and Reinvention of the world” confirms that the great hoax that globalization promoted as an inevitable ideological globalization is an alleged inevitability that is nothing more than a big lie, as one who says that the sun never sets. Saul asserts that after two decades of the prevalence of globalization in many countries of the world, they finally realized its tragic results. Instead of developing their economies and nations, their economies collapsed and became overburdened with debts that they could not be paid off, and their political, social, health and educational conditions were badly deteriorated, The world has recognized the falsehood and deception of this globalization (Saul, 2010). This was confirmed in Mustafa Al Nashar’s book titled: “After Globalization”, who argued that globalization–including its repercussions-is just a stage of human history that is promoted by the dominant powers, and that it will end soon when these powers come to an end. When globalization was considered the world’s inevitable fate it was imposed the indirect colonial do mince over the world claiming that the world has become one village and there is one culture and one economic model that dominates the world. So, all people have become aware of its mischiefs and the world has been suffering since the end of the last century from the Western hegemony and autocracy economically and politically (Al Nashar, 2019).

Multi-Powers amidst the International Third Millennium Chaos

The phase of the current world order is in danger, and so the interests of the United States that are protected by the system are also in danger. Haas (who was the former head of the American foreign relations council) says: the present balance between order and chaos fluctuates in favor of the latter and he thinks that the nearest future is that: “world order would give way to an anarchic regime with a large number of centers of power, operating with greater autonomy and giving less attention to US interests and priorities”. Squealer (professor of political science at Ohio State University) believes that the prevalence of power and authority in general constitutes an increase in the upheaval of the world order (Mazar et al., 2016).

Moving towards a multi-polarity world is the outcome of a relative transformation in the international balance of powers from the West to Eastern and Southern Asia, after the era when the West was the center of “attraction” for political, economic and international affairs, and this implies that the third millennium system comprises emerging global centers of power that can lead to an institutional management of “great powers” which work in harmony with one another, or as a dominant power based on an alliance of several powers.

In a report of the US National Intelligence Council titled: "Global Trends 2025-A Changing World," the council anticipated a revolutionary transformation in the world order. In light of the decline of American hegemony-despite its dominance until now-new players have attained their seats in the international "elite" forum, and they will bring with them new risks and will introduce new rules for the game. The era of the third millennium is a time of increasing complexity and disruption in its balances-from the re-emergence of Federal Russia to the rise of China, India and the European Union as great powers that have re-formed the scene of the world order, especially after the financial crisis of 2008 (Hare, 2013). New regional players are rising to power and refuse to fully succumb to the American hegemony, even if the US is keen to avoid confrontation with them.

The Second Topic: The Rising Powers and their Impact on the Trend of the Contemporary World Order towards Multi-Polarity

Despite the fact that many people think that the first two decades of the third millennium has witnessed a decline in the American hegemony and the rise of other powers on the international arena, it is considered the most powerful economically, military and politically. No other power has ever reached the US rank so far, since the gap between it and its competitors is far and beyond reach. However, this does not negate the ability of international and regional parties to possess the potentials of additional power and greater flexibility and the influence on the international relations.

Reshaping the Third Millennium System between the “Balance of Threat” and the “Soft Balance”

Stephen Walt, professor of international affairs at Harvard University, developed the theory of "balance of threat", in which he considered that balancing behavior is inevitable in international relations, as it is a response to threat, not force and that countries seeking power is not for the sake of achieving power balance in the international relation but it is targeted at achieving balance of threat. Possessing power is an attempt to boost the ability to threat, and so the theory is based on the notion of acquiring power for the sake of threat rather than defense. As power can be either offensive or defensive, and offensive power aims to balance the threat, while defensive power seeks to achieve a balance of power, and despite the difficulty of knowing the intentions of countries behind their quest to possess power, this is determined by the nature of the world order. The more the world order chaotic, the more countries adopt the policy of the balance of threat-countries tend to the balance of threat when the there is a lack of the bases and standards or criteria of the power balance (Al Sa’abary, 2017).

When countries realize that they cannot achieve national security on their own, they form alliances in an effort to increase their aptitudes and the abilities of their allies, as avoiding the source of the external threat becomes a major goal for states in a chaotic world order, and this means that states seek alliances when they are under threat and in need of security to respond to threats. Walt says that states are allied to achieve balance of threat rather than balance of power. Therefore, what explains the formation of alliances is the balance of threat and not the balance of power (Dagi, 2018).

According to Ernst Hass, the emergence of cross-border security threats has reshaped states' doctrine of security so as to adapt to these challenges, and move from the concept of security in its Westphalia concept to the concept of regional security, which means shifting from the level of basic security to the level of regional security, that requires unity of regional efforts to encounter cross-border threats (Dahman, 2015).

In the light of the fact the US superiority in power relating to the abilities and sources of power distribution compared to other international powers and the emergence of a regime that rejects submission and subordination to the American power- but does not possess the courage and aptitudes to confront it- these powers seek to combine achieving a balance of threat on one hand and choosing what is known as “soft balance” “on the other hand.

According to (Keir-Lieber & Alexander Girard), soft balance is that instead of other international powers challenging American supreme power, which some may see as overtly costly or unappealing, states believe they can take a set of small actions as a means of impeding and undermining that power. This is confirmed by Professor at the University of Chicago Robert Pape who argues that: the realization of the great powers in the world order of the high cost of confronting the United States directly on one power, or the growing dangers of some of these powers confronting it, at least when the major powers become confident that the members of this balance or the coalition will act according to what has been agreed upon, it is likely for them to adopt what is known as the "soft balancing" procedures; which means actions that do not directly challenge US military hegemony and dominance. Nonetheless, non-military tools such as, international institutions, economic actions and diplomatic measures can be used to increase the pace of regional blocs in Asia and Latin America and the call for restructuring the United Nations is one of the most prominent signs of the emergence of a “soft balance” against America, according to the German Joseph Joffe (Abu Zaid, 2014).

Rising Powers in the International Third Millennium System

The most prominent rising powers in the international third millennium system are as follows:

1- Federal Russia: It has strongly regained its position in the international interaction, is trying to influence global issues, and attract a number of allies through regional strategic coalitions, enabling it to determine its zones of influence, benefiting from the vast energy revenues in the time from 2006-2013 to support its weak economy. In 2013, the size of the national product reached 2.30 trillion dollars, which is ten times the size of the production in 2000, as it did not exceed 200 billion dollars. It has also modernized its huge and strategic military power to become the second military power in the world after the United States, and before the third Chinese army, according to the classification of the Global Firepower website specialized in military affairs for the year 2017 (and it is still in the same rank in the classification of the year 2021). Moreover, it is the second exporter of arms in the world according to the statistics of the Stockholm International Peace Institute for the years from 2013-2017, and Moscow acquired 25% of the arms trade After the United States with 34% and China in the third place with 6% (Abdul-Sadiq, 2018).

2- China: Zhang Weiwei says in his book "The Chinese Earthquake-the Rise of a Civilized Country", that China has established an unprecedented modern state system, which includes one government, market, economy, education, law, defense, finance and tax system. It is also considered one of the most influential countries in the world, since it became clear from organizing the Olympic Games in 2008, and its orientation of economic growth in the country, while retaining many of its traditions as a civilized country with a huge population density in the world. China today combines between being a national and a civilized state, combining their strengths and advantages. Being a modern state, it supports equality between states in terms of sovereignty, protection of human rights, rejecting racial discrimination, and preserving many of the traditions and characteristics resulting of their ancient civilization. It is characterized as an old country and an emerging "developing" country, traditional and modern, Chinese and international (Wei, 2016).

China has initiated its pace towards the world’s economic dominance, since its economy reached the second rank in the world. It was also to achieve technical and economic progress in parallel with the spread of its cultural model-in defiance of the Western cultural model-as it established the "Confucius Institute", in 2018. 548 institutes bearing this name have spread in 154 countries and regions in the world, and China was also distinguished by its substantial interest in the Chinese army and strengthening China's military capabilities. The American writers Daniel Burstein and Arne de Keema-two of America's top economic advisors–declared in their book titled "The Great Dragon-China in the Twenty-First Century", that 2022 will be the Year of the Dragon in China’s annual calendar, as President Ping said in a speech in 2014: that self-reliance is the basis for the establishment of the Chinese nation in the jungle of nations, and that self-innovation is an inevitable way become at the top of science and technology. He also confirmed that we would not be separated from those around us.... and announced the revival of the Silk Road; to realize the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation (Al-Nashar, 2019).

3- Japan: After the Second World War, Japan was distinguished with the fast economic and commercial growth to be a new model for the developing countries. Trying to redefine the new Japanese foreign policy, Japanese politicians took a long time to take part in the international affairs till the mid-80’s of the twentieth century, or as some say after the second Gulf war. The Japanese foreign policy simply followed the demands of the United States and did not show any willingness to take the initiative or play a leading role. It remained disarmed and peaceful according to its American-made constitution. But, with the vast economic development, Japan could not any more remain passive concerning the international affairs. Japan had overcome its military defeat and economic devastation to become effective in the field of production, export and finance at the international level. It was expected that it would turn into a great military power in a short time when it decided to be so, as Japan could easily build-up modern army and navy through utilizing its financial resources, technological potentials and industrial productivity (Akgun& Çal??, Reluctant Giant: The Rise of Japan and its Role in The Post-Cold War Era, http://sam.gov.tr). In addition, Japan had some attempts to resuscitate at the beginning of the twenty-first century, as it proposed in 2005 to develop the Asian Monetary Fund, which some considered a challenge to the authority of the International Monetary Fund, and shows Japan's interest in regional economic cooperation-which failed at that time due to the American opposition-as Japan sought to attain a permanent seat in the Security Council, which reflects a change in the basic rules of the world order (Acharya, 2011: 861).

The ranking of the Japanese army has risen globally among the armies of countries that have great powers on the international scene. At a constant rate annually, Japan spends no more than 1% of the gross domestic product on military power, as Tokyo has managed to strengthen its presence on the list of the first ten military forces according to the classification of Global website-Firepower. Between 2013 and 2014, Japan made a rapid rise from the seventeenth to the tenth rank, and from there to the eighth in 2018, and that was in line of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's announcement in 2017 of his intention to amend Article Nine of the Constitution that restricts arming the country and possessing offensive capabilities, intent on “rebuilding the nation,” describing some clauses of the constitution as humiliating. This does not indicate that this is the end of the strategic alliance with the United States, as in his suggestion was justifying Japan's attempt to restore its global role fearing that Washington's withdrawal from East Asia-which former US President Trump had proposed-or that the American power will decline against China and Russia, especially in light of the growing strength of its traditional opponents in the region (Abed, 2019, Japan.. Quiet and Steady Steps Towards Restoring the “Imperialist Army,” https://www.aa.com.tr/), according to the National Interest magazine, the Japanese army for the year 2021 CE is considered one of the strongest five armies in the world (Episkopos, 2021, Top 5 Militaries on Planet Earth: 2021 Edition https://nationalinterest.org).

4- India: India is witnessing a stage of being a great power that possesses the potentials of the rising powers since it is far more being an economic power in South Asia which is considered a vital regional area in the world order, adjacent to East and South-East Asia where the area is described as the most worldwide economically dynamic region. It is open to the strategic Middle East region, and open to the Indian Ocean, which is the pivot (central point) of the strategies of the world's maritime powers. Therefore, India is looking to enforce its presence in the world order, after becoming one of the major regional powers, which made it think that this qualifies it to enjoy a permanent membership in the Security Council. India has also followed, since the era of the Post-Cold War, during 1991-2016, a policy that depends on dealing carefully while not being engaged within the American strategy framework in the world. That is, it maintained an approach which supports the independence trend, while working to expand its global relations, and adopting policies that support easing regional conflicts with China and Pakistan (Al-Haddad, 2017).

In his speech at an annual meeting of Overseas Indians, the former Prime Minister Singh asserted that: "The century will be the Indian century, and the world will respect us, not only for our economic progress, but for the democratic values we cherish and uphold, and the principles of pluralism and inclusiveness that we have, this represents India as a country that has an old culture and civilization over centuries (Acharya, 2011).

India today looks like a global giant that is slowly rising. Its ambassador to the United States, Harsh Vardhan Shringla, stressed in a speech to students and staff at Harvard University in 2019 that: India’s economic power is progressing and the circumstances are suitable for becoming a global great power in the twenty-first century. He stressed that India took nearly 60 years after independence to reach an economy of one trillion dollars, but it took only 12 years to reach an economy of 2.0 trillion dollars, and only five years from 2014-2019 to rise to 3.0 trillion dollars. In addition, the ambassador assured that the Prime Minister of India has set a goal to achieve $5.0 trillion by 2025, (Shringla, 2019, Indian Economic Juggernaut on A roll, Country Will be A superpower: Envoy, https://www.business-standard.com/). Regarding its military force, the statistics indicate that India comes at the fourth rank internationally among the three most powerful armies according to international classification. The defense budget of the Indian army reaches $73.6 billion for 2021 (Episkopos, 2021, Top 5 Militaries on Planet Earth: 2021 Edition https://nationalinterest.org.).

5- European Union (EU): The world order today tends to focus on the rank of regional systems, since the most new prominent regional polar fractures had been reshaped since the formation of the EU. Although the EU is considered one of the present international powers in the world order, the exit of Britain definitely affects the EU. Britain is considered the greatest military force in Europe, as it represents 25% of expenditure on defense in the EU and 40% of the EU expenditure on defensive researches and development. Furthermore, it has the soft power which includes: culture, political and diplomatic values, it possesses the hard power that comprises: military, financial and foreign policy as well, which is an additional resource for the EU influence (Hashem, 2017).
The exit of Britain from the EU is seen by some as a clear invitation to the rising nationalist thoughts in Europe, reduces the Union’s political weight and turns it into a “small power”. On the contrary, others believe that its exit will pave the way towards establishing a federal European Union that Britain was used to oppose, and supports a more united “European opinion/say” in many multi-lateral institutions, including the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Besides, they also argue that Britain’s exit will facilitate the rearrangement of the balance of security in Europe, unify the Common Trade Policy, and strengthen the European Common Security and Defense Policy. However, David Volkerts Landau (chief economist at Deutsche Bank) asserts that Britain's exit from the EU will actually turn the EU into a "small power". Argues that it will be devastating for Europe, which will become much less important, and its influence will be weakened on the level of foreign policy of the United Nations and the global decision-making process, not only geographically, but also economically, politically and militarily (Ham, 2016).

6- Brazil: Although the military rule in Brazil remained for more than half a century, it was able to get out of the bottleneck and build a successful democratic system economically, thankful to the constitutional amendments that were culminated by electing the President of the Republic directly from the nation of Brazil. Brazil has emerged as a rising regional and international power, supported by its strong position due to its huge demographic weight (a quarter of a billion people), its large geographical area, and precious natural resources, as all of these potentials were exploited by political decision-makers who were determined to reinforce its role as a regional and global power. Despite some major social problems, Brazil succeeded to record remarkable economic achievements, as it is was in the eighth rank in the world's economic classification, and is an active member of the Group of Twenty (Askaran, 2011). Brazil is also a rising military power, as according to the Global Firepower website, which studied the military power, financial, logistical and geography capabilities of countries for the year 2021 AD (in a study of 140 countries), Brazil ranked ninth in the world. (Globalfirepower website, 2021, 2021 Military Strength Ranking, https://www.globalfirepower.com

7- Rising Powers in the Middle East: In the absence of any Arab power on the regional scene, Turkey and Iran-being original countries in the region-are the two most prominent regional powers in the region. Although they are ranked second among other emerging powers at the international level, they are classified as effective regional powers that seek to develop their moral, economic, military and structural forces and potentials. This qualifies them to occupy a strong position on the international level, allowing them to influence the behavior of others, and support their policy to achieve their strategic goals, which represent their national will, besides their political, diplomatic, economic and military abilities (Al-Adam, 2019, which is stronger: Facts and Figures about Military and Economic Abilities of Turkey and Iran ( https://www.aljazeera.net).

A study made by Global Fire Power magazine of the military power of 140 countries showed the "fierce competition" among the Middle East countries to possess military power. Turkey ranked 11^th in the world, and Egypt ranked 13^th as the largest Arab military power, followed by Iran in the 14^th place, Saudi Arabia ranked 17^th and Israel came in the twentieth place. (Globalfirepower website, 2021, 2021 Military Strength Ranking, https://www.globalfirepower.com/)

Among the most prominent features of the beginning of the end of the American hegemony of the global policies is due to the characteristics of the rising powers, most notably: their willingness to challenge American hegemony over global political and economic decision-making process. This is supported by economic growth and high human development indicators in their countries, as is the case in China, India and Brazil. In addition their influence can be attributed to their ability to have regional and global economic impact, and their propensity to adapt to global changes (Al-Tamimi, 2018), as well as the noticeable growth of their military abilities and their great technological development.

The Third Topic: The Impact of the Precursors of the Transformation of the Structure of the Third Millennium System on the State of International Peace and Security.

The status of the new world in the first two decades of the third millennium is still witnessing a state of interaction between the unipolarity of the systems on one hand, and multi-polarity on the other hand. Facing the US’s attempt to regain supremacy of the international scene, the rising powers are strongly confronting such hegemony, and they are resorting to form economic alliances with political considerations amidst the state of chaos prevailing in the third millennium international system. Such, may be negatively reflected on the state of international peace and security, and let them face possible challenges related to the nature of the American attitude towards the changes of the contemporary world order.

The American Stance towards International Changes and its Repercussions on International Peace and Security

Believing that the US dominance and influence on the international scene is endless is not acceptable. In light of the previously discussed topics, the American stance may fluctuate as explained in the following options:

* That the United States will deal realistically with the variables of the contemporary world order, and the emergence of rising powers that challenge American hegemony, possess potentials of traditional and non-traditional power, and accept the formula of multi-polarity. Hence, move towards agreement, understanding and cooperation with the new polarity, and avoid conflict with them, in order to maintain stability, order and the international peace and security. At any rate, the US has not and will not be able to prevent others from rising.

* For the sake of maintaining its power, reforming its internal affairs, addressing its economic problems and facing the decline of its international dominance and the increase in hostility towards it, the US may revert to the policy of isolationism which was adopted at the beginning of the Great War and at the time between the two world wars, and the adoption of the Monroe Doctrine again, in order to preserve its strength and its strategic military reserve. Perhaps the most important indicators of this trend is the slogan “America First” which was initiated by former US President Trump, the withdrawal or reduction of US military forces in more than one place in the world, attaining popular support for giving priority to internal reforms, letting the world manage its own crises, and abandoning the policy of broad integration with the outside world.

* Or that the US, since it is being considered the number one power in the world in all domains, and the existence of a widening gap between it and the rising powers, and in light of the difficulty of relinquishing the leadership of the world-either it remains or creates a state of chaos-opts to go back to the use of force in order to restrain the rising powers, whether through conventional or unconventional wars. Nonetheless, this option is the weakest and most hazardous, as the tools of conflict and wars have changed and became diversified in the era of the third millennium, and today they are more dangerous than conventional weapons. Many countries can possess them but don’t need to have the same power of their enemy, and may be even owned and used by people or groups, since some countries have the ability to react against all American actions. On the other hand, the American land is no longer far from the battlefield as it was in the past, and has become today a target that is exposed to destruction or damage like others–and there is no room for addressing this issue in this study-but the choice of declaring war certainly means gigantic destruction in the world, that won’t be limited to the parties involved in the conflict.

Conclusion

In light of the study’s discussion and argument on its subject matter and related questions, the researcher concluded that the emergence of the rising powers in the third millennium system-driven by their attempts to put an end to the American hegemony on the international scene-had played a major role and a strong impact on reshaping the third millennium international system, and pushing forward the shift towards multi-polarity, as well as creating a transformation in the nature and patterns of international relations in the world order. Furthermore, the emergence of precursors of the deterioration of liberalism as a single global political value, generated opportunities to put forward other ideologies that seek to compete for attaining power.

In view of that, the study recommends-in line with the need to maintain a state of international stability, peace and security-that international power have to be more rational in their international relations. The researcher also advised that these powers pursue to achieve international consensus based on dialogue so as to avoid the outbreak of destructive conflicts and wars, as well as accepting diverse ideological multi-polarity by restructuring international organizations in accordance with the nature of changes in the third millennium system.

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