Author(s): Siyuan Wei, Vatcharapol Sukhotu
This paper aims to investigate the effect on the trade volume of Thailand's exports to China by the China-Laos railway after its completion. This study will help Thai exporters and China importers with valuable information about the China-Laos railway. First, the authors study Thailand's export industries and export destinations in China from the literature review. Then, the authors' research information the China-Laos railway development and volume of the freight from Thailand to China through in-depth interviews and secondary data. The authors calculate the value of the export trade per freight volume for projecting the trade volume when the additional transport capacity is available by the China-Laos railway. Linear regression is used to calculate the trade per volume and confirm the fitness for the use of the trade per volume value. The trade per volume is used for estimating the amount of trade that can utilize the capacity the China-Laos railway connection will provide. Finally, the author calculates the amount of trade that the China-Laos railway can bring in the early, middle and late term, and predicts the proportion of Thailand's export trade to China that the China-Laos railway can share. This proves the effect of China-Laos railway on Thailand's export trade to China. In addition, the paper also discusses the advantage that the China-Laos railway will bring to Thai exporters in terms of the cost -effectiveness and added freight capacity.