Author(s): Mohamad Ahlis, Haerul Anam, Wahyu Irawan
This study aims to determine and analyze effect of the exchange rate, interest rates, money supply, imports, and foreign exchange reserves on inflation in Indonesia in 2013-2019 period. This type of data uses secondary data, namely monthly data from 2013-2019. Sources of data come from Bank Indonesia (BI), Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), SEKI (Indonesian Economic and Financial Statistics), and the Ministry of Trade. Data analysis needs to use several classical tests consisting of stationarity test, causality test, cointegration test, statistical test, and ARCH-GARCH analysis. The ARCH-GARCH analysis method with the best estimation model is GARCH (2.2). The results indicate that the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on inflation, interest rates have a negative and not significant effect on inflation, money supply and imports have a positive and significant effect on inflation, and foreign exchange reserves have a negative and significant effect on inflation.