Author(s): Irina Vyacheslavovna Kosorukova, Olesya Gennadievna Kukharenko, Victor Dmitrievich Orekhov, Helena Piel, Elena Sergeevna Shchennikova
A study of long-term economic growth using the educational model of human capital has been conducted. The work aims to forecast the economic growth of the world's leading economies until the end of the 21st century to identify potential candidates for world leadership and create conditions for increasing the terms of strategic planning. Mathematical research methods include the development of models for the growth of the number of researchers and the calculation of the contribution coefficients to GDP of specialists with various educations, as well as the formation of a global ViC model for predicting GDP growth. A comparison of GDP calculations using the ViC model and the forecast of PricewaterhouseCoopers in 2050 showed their good agreement. The average value of the difference in GDP values for the two forecasts is 3%, and the standard deviation is 12%. Calculations of the development of the 12 largest economies until 2100 showed that their total GDP at PPP will amount to 350 trillion international dollars in 2017, and the countries that are currently developing will have a dominant share among them (78%). China will be the leader in terms of GDP for about 47 years, and then its growth rate will decrease, as a result of a decrease in the population. India will surpass China in terms of GDP by about 2067 and India will have GDP = 96.5 trillion international dollars by 2100. There are no countries that can potentially surpass India in terms of GDP. The share of employees with tertiary education and the number of research and development specialists per billion GDP has a dominant influence on economic growth. The results of the work can be used for strategic planning.